Solutions for America

Should We Go to War with Iraq?

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This is a dialog between my brother, Les and me.

Les, thanks for a dialog.  I need to clear up for myself why I tend towards war.

The hawks present this false choice between war with Iraq vs. "let Saddam
run amok".  There are other options.  Our flyers enforce the no-fly zones,
destroying an air-defense installation of Iraq's every few days...Finding
contraband weapons seems much easier with inspectors that have the run of
the country as opposed to soldiers that are getting shot at.
Finding contraband weapons depends upon having Iraqis tell us where they are.  If we depose the current regime the scientists and engineers will be free to talk.  I'd bet $10,000 that we will find lots of contraband if we invade.

Saddam is an unmitigated SOB and the world would be a better place without him.  But there are many other despots in the world that are as well.  A regime change does not guarantee that the resulting leader will be any better...I think a Muslim fundamentalist would be worse.  Keeping a puppet government in power there would not be a solution if it did not have the
support of the majority of the Iraqi people (and then it wouldn't be a "puppet").
I agree that a fundamentalist is the wrong replacement.  Iraqis don't tend in that direction.

The other "rationale" for invading is to "disarm" Iraq.  Iraq denies having
contraband (certainly a suspect claim), but the inspectors, up to now, have
not found anything significant. 
The inspectors didn't find the nuclear or poison weapons until Sadam's son-in-law defected.
 
Either Iraq DOES have contraband weapons or it DOES NOT.  If it DOES NOT, then this war is no more than a personality conflict....it would feel good to kick him in the ass, but that
does not justify a war.  If Iraq did not have contraband weapons they would not kill engineers who have inside dope. 
They would not have demanded that the interviewees have minders and tape recorders.
 
If Iraq DOES have contraband weapons, or is trying to obtain or develope them, but it is able to hide that fact from the inspectors, I don't see how an invasion would solve the problem. 
If we separate $billions in oil money from those who want to be latter-day caliphs by building arsenals we solve a big problem.
 
If we know or suspect we know where the contraband items or activities are....the
inspectors can go there and deal with them. 
We can't reveal where some of our intel says the weapons are because it would reveal a source or method of how we know.
 
If we don't know, then an invasion or occupied Iraq will not be a better environment for finding
them.  As best it would disrupt the activity somewhat.  If they can hide it from our intelligence agencies and the inspectors on the ground, then it will remain hidden from an invading/occupying force.  The people who know what we want will still know, but there is no guarantee they will tell us.
I think the flood gates will open and the Iraqis on the ground will tell us a lot.
 

Meanwhile, what cost have we incurred, both in lives, treasure and moral standing, to obtain this result? 
If we find WMD's then we are justified in having the Iraqi oil pay for the cost of enforcing the 17 UN resolutions and the ceasefire agreement.
 
As for life, we have to be willing to shed blood to maintain freedom.
 
Will we or the world be better off or worse?  War is not a game or some ego trip for an inadequate man that needs to prove he is not a wimp.  And if this march is being done for some of thedarker reasons suggested (political cover to distract the voters from the
failing economy or the slow progress on the legitimate war on terrorists, control of Iraqi oil for US interests, or even to "bring democracy to the oppressed") it is even less justified.
Sometimes bad intentions yield good results.

North Korea is a real threat to us and it's neighbors.  It is being downplayed since it would be far more difficult and costly to confront them militarily than the weak Iraq.
North Korea is more likely to be reasonable if they perceive us as not wimping out.

I remain unconvinced of the wisdom of our leaders. 
I don't believe our leaders have wisdom or tell the truth.

Les       Cliff

2/14/03

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